On May 10-11, the National Agricultural Technology Center organized the forecasting technical personnel and relevant experts of the Southern Rice Main Producing Province to hold a national trade meeting on the occurrence of major rice pests and diseases in Beijing. According to the current analysis of factors such as the current number of pests, climatic conditions and rice cultivation, it is expected that the early rice pests and diseases will be more serious than the previous year, which is heavier than the previous year, with an area of ​​319 million mu. Among them, the insect pests are mainly rice planthopper, rice leaf roller and rice stem borer, with an area of ​​220 million mu; the disease is dominated by rice blast and rice sheath blight, with an area of ​​99 million mu.

First, the trend

(1) Rice pests The rice planthoppers are expected to occur in most of southern China, most of the south of the Yangtze River, and the southwestern southern rice areas, which is more important than the previous year, with an area of ​​82 million mu; the rice leaf roller is in central South China and Jiangnan. The western rice area is biased, and the eastern part of the Yangtze River and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River occur moderately, which is heavier than the previous year, with an area of ​​70 million mu;

In the central and northern parts of the Yangtze River and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the rice stem borer occurs in a large area, and some single-double-season rice mixed areas in the southeastern Hubei and Jianghan plains occur greatly. Other rice areas in the south of the Yangtze River occur moderately, which is heavier than the previous year, with an area of ​​50 million mu;

The rice in the middle of South China, Jiangnan and the Yangtze River is generally mild, and the northeastern part of Guangdong is moderately occurring. It is lighter than the previous year, with an area of ​​8 million mu. The other pests such as Datun have occurred to some extent in some rice areas. The area is 10 million mu.

(2) Rice disease and sheath blight in large areas in the central and western parts of the Yangtze River and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, most of which occur in most parts of southern China and the south of the Yangtze River, close to normal years, with an area of ​​76 million mu; rice blast in the middle reaches of the middle reaches of South China, Jiangnan and the Yangtze River Moderate occurrence, risk of recurrence of susceptible varieties and historical wards is greater than that of the previous year, with an incidence of 16 million mu; rice bacterial blight, rice bacterial leaf streak and southern rice black streaked dwarf disease in some rice The area has occurred to a certain extent, with an area of ​​7 million mu.

Second, the basis of prediction

(1) Most of the pests and diseases have the above-mentioned base number, which is affected by the early impact of South China. This year, the rice planthoppers migrated earlier and moved in more. According to the monitoring of the National Pest and Disease Network, the rice planthopper monitored the first single-light single-day insect trapping rate of more than 100 heads in Pubei, Guangxi on March 18, 5-15 days earlier than normal; From late March to early April, in the south of Guangxi and southwestern Guizhou, from mid-April to early May, the peaks were observed in southern China, southwestern south, and southern Jiangnan. The amount of insects moved was 40%-150 higher than the same period of the previous year. %. At present, the number of worms in the field of rice planthoppers is 100-700, which is higher than the same period of the previous year.

Hainan Qionghai, Guangdong Zhongshan, Yangjiang, Guangxi Hepu, Qinbei, Rongxian, Tunxi, Yunnan Yuanyang, Jiangxi Dayu, Xinfeng, Anyuan and other places have exceeded the prevention and control indicators, the amount of worms up to 1000- 4000 heads. Rice leaf roller has been moved into the South China rice area since early March, and moved to the peak in western Guangdong in late April. The migration period is 10-15 days earlier than normal;

The amount of eggs in the fields of western Guangdong, southern Guangxi and southwest Guangxi is high. The number of moths is generally 100-400, the height is 500-700, and the highest in Guangdong Yangdong is 3000; the larval of mu is generally 500-2000, high. 3000-5500 heads, Guangdong Maoming, Yangjiang, Guangxi Hepu, Pubei and other places up to 20,000 heads; the average amount of eggs per mu is 5000-10000, and the height of Yangjiang in Guangdong is 40,000.

In the north-central part of the Yangtze River and in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the base number of the rice stem is generally 1,500-4,500 per mu, and the bottom of the lake in Hunan and the top of the river in Linchuan, and the number of insects in the first generation. The sheath blight is heavy all year round, the base of bacteria is accumulating, and the amount of bacteria in the field is large. Rice blast disease is early in the early rice area of ​​South China, and the degree of occurrence is heavier than that of the same period of last year. In addition, the occurrence of mid-late rice in the past year is wide and the field has sufficient bacteria. , with the basis of disease prevalence.

The southern rice black-streaked dwarf disease is found locally in the early rice region of South China, and the diseased plant rate is less than 0.1%. According to the test of South China Agricultural University, the poisoning rate of the drug-transmitting mediator, the whitebacked planthopper, is less than 1%, and the prevalence risk in early rice. small.

(2) Early rice variety layout and cultivation management conditions are beneficial to pests and diseases

The proportion of rice blast resistant varieties in rice main cultivars is not high. For example, rice blast disease observation 设立 established by Yangjiang City Agricultural Science Institute of Guangdong Province shows that 19 out of 21 rice cultivars are ill, which is conducive to the occurrence of rice blast. Under the condition of high water and fertilizer cultivation, the rice grows in a large amount and the field is sheltered, which is easy to form a moderate and high-humidity field microclimate, which is suitable for the propagation and spread of rice pests and diseases.

At the same time, the mixed area of ​​early and middle rice in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yangtze River is conducive to the concentration of rice pests to damage early rice. Table 1 Comparison of single-day average insect attractance of rice planthoppers in the past five years from March 1 to April 30

(3) The climatic conditions are conducive to the spread of pests and diseases

According to the prediction of the National Climate Center, the precipitation in southern China is close to normal in May this year. The precipitation in the early rice areas of central and northern South China, Jiangnan and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is obviously more than 2-5%, which is conducive to the migration of “two-shift” pests. And the landing, as well as the expansion and spread of rice blast and sheath blight. From June to August, the precipitation in southern China is less and the temperature is higher, which is beneficial to the northward migration of “two-shift” pests;

The precipitation in the northern part of the Yangtze River and Jianghan is obviously more than normal, and most of them are mainly convective precipitation, which is very conducive to the migration of the two-shifted pests, and also increases the chance of encountering the rainy weather and the susceptible period of rice blast, plus the temperature ratio. Perennial low, not hot in summer, is conducive to the spread of the "two-shift" pests and the spread of disease.

In addition, from June to August, 5-6 typhoons will land in China from the southeast and south China coasts. The landing intensity is stronger than normal, which may cause the “two-shift” pests to frequently transport and land with the typhoon, causing large-scale concentration in some areas. It is harmful to move in; it is also beneficial to bacterial diseases.

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