Pork is worth a hundredfold in recent years, and the downward trend in recent months has finally given the consumer a sigh of relief. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the national pig price fell by 17.6% in September, affecting a drop of 0.68% in CPI. During the same period of September, CPI rose 1.9% year-on-year. So far, prices have risen for the first time in the 3rd quarter of this year, following an increase of 1.8% and 2% respectively in prices in the previous two months.

Wang Yuwen, a research fellow at the Bank of Communications Finance Research Center, pointed out that due to the rising cost of labor, coupled with the economic outlook is expected to be slightly faster next year, and the import factors of international commodity prices, the overall price level next year is expected to be higher than this year.

Lower prices are related to the current low prices of pork and other meats.

The price of meat, poultry and their products fell by 6.0% in September, affecting the total level of CPI by about 0.48 percentage points, of which the price of pork dropped by 17.6%, affecting the total level of CPI by about 0.68 percentage points. At present, the proportion of pork and pork consumed in consumer prices is about 8% and 2.9% respectively.

Feng Yonghui pointed out that for many years there has been a bizarre relationship between pig prices and commodity prices. “The amount of live pigs is too large. We haven’t eliminated them so much this year. Prices may be better in the fourth quarter of the year, but not much better.”

At present, the weight of CPI for fresh vegetables and grains is 2.7% and 2.9% respectively. The same weight as pork accounts for 2.9% of CPI.

The difference is that the prices of grain and fresh vegetables in September rose by 3.7% and 11.1% respectively from the same period of last year, and the total CPI raised by about 0.11 and 0.30 percentage points, but not as good as the low price of pork.

In contrast, the price of food, last year's corn price was 0.8 to 1 yuan per catty, and this year is about 1.3 yuan. “Pigs cannot touch the bottom. When the prices of food are falling or if the pigs encounter plagues, they cannot make any money.” Li Guiying, a villager in Datian Village, Xiangyan Town, Mianyang City, Sichuan Province, said with emotion: Raising pigs does not make money. The reason is that corn prices have risen sharply, and pig prices haven't improved much.

The rise in corn prices has led to a direct increase in the cost of raising pigs. For example, in 2009, the price of corn was only 8 hair per catty, and a pig earning only needed more than 5 per catty. Since then, the price of corn has increased. The prices of pigs' profit and loss points in 2010, 2011 and 2012 were 5 and 6 blocks of 5 and 7, respectively. At present, pigs earn about 50 yuan per head. Yu Wen believes that the fourth quarter CPI is about 2.3% year-on-year, higher than the third quarter, and the initial judgment next year, the increase was 3.5%. “Does not rule out that inflationary pressures will be greater than expected in the coming year if they are affected by large-scale currency shocks or input-type factors.”

Feng Yonghui believes that the current live pig population and sow population do not support price increases next year, or even downward pressure, but if the economy is pulling fast, the residents' income will grow faster, which will also make pork prices likely to rebound.

The price of fresh corn in the northeast 14% is about 2,300 yuan/ton, and the total corn price is 1.15 yuan/kg. As the price of corn has only risen in recent years, it has raised the profitability of pig raising, and the profit and loss point is also rising year after year.