In summary, the remote consultation of Internet hospitals is still at an early stage of development. The obstacles to its development are: the strength of the grassroots doctors who are most suitable for remote consultation services and the supporting strength of primary medical institutions are too weak to allow patients. trust. Large hospitals are not suitable for remote consultation of B-B-C, regardless of income model or doctor orientation. Therefore, only after the basic medical system has gained strong development, the remote consultation has the possibility of great development. The current Internet hospital is just a transitional form of the market, and it is difficult to become the mainstream model for future development. Modes to estimate future development potential are highly likely to cause significant deviations. Fall into the trap of expecting too much from the innovation model.

Based on the data currently available on the market related to telecommunication, we conducted a scale forecast for this market. Even in extremely optimistic circumstances, the market size of the B-B-C remote consultation is only 2020. 9 billion, which is mainly from the income of medicines. This market size forecast does not include the B-B teleconsultation market, but only for general diseases that are mainly for small and chronic diseases. The reason for not including the teleconsultation market is that teleconsultation is essentially a hospital-to-hospital business in which third parties find it difficult to develop and can only be a role in providing infrastructure and software. In particular, with the coverage of medical insurance for the remote consultation market, it will be difficult for third-party companies to obtain large-scale legal income.

The scale of B-B-C remote consultation is closely related to the three variables. The first is the speed and range of the points. From the current development of remote consultation, the market is very regional, and it needs the support policies and administrative support of the local government to start rapidly. Therefore, for the pilot provinces, the speed of placement in primary care institutions, small hospitals, and retail pharmacies will be closely related to the number of remote consultation clinics across the region. Among them, the most promising development is the distribution of retail pharmacies, especially chain pharmacies. Once the cooperation is established, it will be able to quickly promote large-scale deployment, which is very beneficial to expansion. In contrast, the speed of placement in grassroots institutions and small hospitals is relatively slow, and because of the technical strength and medical service capabilities of the organization, the ability to attract patients is different, and there are more institutions in the institutions with relatively better service capabilities. It is possible to get passenger flow.

The second key variable is the amount by which a single point is obtained. Our calculations show that the current remote consultation can get 0.5 people per single day, which may increase in the future. However, due to the weak overall strength of China's primary medical care, the growth rate of single-point customers will not increase too fast. A trip to 1 or 1.5 will be a great leap. The growth in the number of major service visitors will continue to increase in the next three to five years.

The third variable is the proportion of prescriptions for remote consultations and the cost of medicines. Since the service fee for remote consultation is relatively stable with reference to the offline registration fee, it is difficult to change it greatly. The most likely to affect the market size is the prescribing situation. At present, 60% of the remote consultation services of the Second Hospital of Guangdong will issue prescriptions, and the average prescription is 60 yuan. This amount is lower than the average prescription cost of 136 yuan for the third-level hospital in 2014, and 83 yuan for the second-level hospital, and the average prescription amount for the first-level hospital is 66 yuan. The remote consultation is mainly aimed at conventional diseases at present, and the drug is relatively cheap at the retail or grassroots level, so the average prescription amount in the future will not be too high.

However, if the continuous prescription of chronic diseases is released and the related remote follow-up and chronic disease management services are launched in conjunction with chronic disease treatment, it will be possible to gradually transfer more prescriptions to the remote end, which may affect the average of remote consultations. The amount of the prescription. However, this change will not only be regional, but also the speed and scale of development depends on how to ensure the doctor's interest in medicine. Since the economic power of doctors still comes from medicines, the possibility of prescription outflow is not great. Especially with the development of remote consultations by the medical association itself, the pressure on third-party platforms will continue to increase, and this market is still small-scale.

For the above important variables, we have set four important indicator hypotheses, including two layout indicators, which are the proportion of coverage of basic medical institutions (including primary and tertiary hospitals) and the proportion of retail pharmacy coverage, single point and single day. The number of telemedicine visits obtained, as well as the average prescription amount for each remote visit, based on the three variations of these four variables, we measured the market size of telemedicine services.

Another important indicator against the overall health care market benchmark is the proportion of remote outpatients who account for the number of outpatient visits. From the experience of the United States, the conversion rate of a representative remote consultation model such as Teladoc is about 3%. Since the telemedicine in China has just started, and the importance of grassroots and retail pharmacies is far less than that of the United States, the conversion rate will be Lower than the United States. We believe that in the next five years, the proportion of remote consultation services to the number of offline emergency services will be 0.5% to 1.5%, which will be a reasonable interval.

The scale of the remote consultation market measured by the above benchmarks is divided into two parts: service and medicine. Under the basic circumstances, the scale of services and the scale of drugs were 480 million yuan and 2.24 billion yuan respectively, and the overall remote consultation market was 2.7 billion yuan. If the coverage of the distribution points increases, the number of single-point visits increases and the prescription amount increases slightly. Under the optimistic and extremely optimistic increase, the overall market size of the remote consultation may be 5.47 billion yuan to 8.89 billion yuan. Within the interval. The scale of services reached 870 million yuan to 1.35 billion yuan, while the scale of drugs was 4.6 billion yuan to 7.5 billion yuan.

Overall, the Internet hospital is a market that can bring certain revenues, but this is always a very small-scale market, and it is mainly concentrated on medicines. If there is no breakthrough in the grassroots environment, it will be difficult to scale up. .

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